If you’re reading this, you may be new to the world of sports betting – a world that can seem alien and confusing to outsiders, but is wildly exhilarating to insiders. If you are a newcomer, pull up a seat. We’ve put together a series of articles to demystify the world of sports betting, and help you navigate it.
At its heart, sports betting is really a numbers game – or rather, it’s a game of numbers. Everything outside a straightforward win or lose is focused on numbers. Odds are decimal or percentage indicators of probability; spreads rely on variable points differences; and key numbers… well, they’re pretty key when it comes to sports betting. But what are they and how do they influence odds and betting?
Key numbers are important numbers – numbers that are critical to the sport you are betting on and the type of bet you’re placing. Key numbers are numbers relevant to specific sports. For example, rugby’s key numbers are 5, 3, and 2, the scores issued to tries, penalties, and conversions, respectively. Key numbers are, to put it simply, the sport-specific numbers that will influence both the outcome and the final score.
Key numbers are a vitally useful tool to bookmakers and sports betters, especially when spread or moneyline betting is in play. Bookmakers use key numbers to determine the odds in spread and moneyline betting, as well as to calculate the probability of wins, losses and other outcomes.
For example, during a multi-team rugby tournament, Team A has consistently performed well with conversions, scoring one after almost every try; however, they do not score tries very often. They also do relatively well with penalty accuracy. Team B, however, scores tries considerably more frequently, but has a poor accuracy rate for conversions and penalties. While the bookmakers are calculating the various probabilities, they also take into account how the teams tend to score to figure out the most likely points spread between the favourite and underdog. Our guide to spread betting gives more detail about how spreads are worked out. By referring to rugby’s key numbers, we can see that the key numbers for Team A will be 2, 3, and 5, while Team B’s key number will be 5, with 2 and 3 being of much less importance.
It’s not only spreads, however. By taking the average frequency of each team’s scores and their relative points, it is possible to compare them to calculate the implied probability of wins and losses.
Key numbers are sport-specific, so really, it’s however many sports you can bet on. In cricket, for example, the key numbers are 1, 4, and 6 within innings, and 20 and 50 for 20/20 and one-days, to mention a few. Football’s solitary key number, on the other hand, is 1 – it’s rare to see a football game with double-digit scores and each goal, which earns just one point, is vitally important to the final score.
The role of key numbers to sports betters is as a weapon in your arsenal. They help you determine the best way to place your bets on a specific sporting event. If the spread odds show that the bookmakers expect there to be a 3-point difference between the two teams, but your calculations show it’s more likely to be 2, then you may have a good bet on your hands.
The simple fact is, any tool in the sports better’s kit is only valuable to the extent that you use it. You can trust the word of the bookmaker, place your bets according to their predictions, and let the chips fall as they may, or you can take the time to learn about the tools available. Knowing the key numbers for sports and using them to figure out your own feelings on the odds isn’t going to change the outcome of the game, but it will help you make more careful and considered decisions about which games to bet on and what bets to place.
Sports Betting 101 is our series of quick and easy guides to the foundations of sports betting. Get familiar with the terminology, understand the basics of how odds and betting work, and learn more about this fascinating world.
